Fitrakis And Lehto, 2006 Election

Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
December 7, 2006

ABSTRACT:  In the November 7, 2006 election in Ohio there were 350,669 more
ballots cast than the number of votes counted for United States Senator.
In 16 counties there were 268,987 uncounted votes, or 19.46% of ballots cast,
compared to 82,957, or 2.99%, in 71 other counties.  Cuyahoga County alone
accounted for 148,928 uncounted votes, or 26.48% of ballots cast in the county,
and 42.47% of the statewide total of uncounted ballots.  In Marion County there
were 1,275 more votes counted for United States Senator than the reported number
of ballots cast, which is an impossibility.  If the rate of uncounted ballots
in the 17 suspect counties had been about 3%, as was the case elsewhere in the
state, there would have been about 42,000 uncounted ballots instead of 269,000.
This indicates that 227,000 votes may have been lost by the touch screen voting
machines, which were utilized in all 17 of the suspect counties.

NOTE:  This analysis is based upon unofficial results.  If the official results
should reduce these discrepancies, the question will remain as to how the
unofficial results could have been so erroneous in the first place.

                         *     *     *     *     *

In the 2006 general election, according to the official website of Ohio
Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, there were 4,177,498 ballots cast in
the State of Ohio.  Of these, only 3,831,716, or 91.72%, contained votes for
Governor, and only 3,826,829, or 91.61%, contained votes for United States
Senate.  These numbers create the appearance of undervote (or overvote) rates
of 8.28% and 8.39%, respectively, in the two most hotly contested statewide
races on the ballot.  When the unofficial election results are examined
county by county, there is a strikingly abnormal distribution of undervotes
and overvotes.  I have chosen the United States Senate race to examine in
detail because there were only two candidates on the ballot (and one write-in
candidate), which makes the mathematical analysis simpler than for the
Governor’s race, in which there were four candidates on the ballot (and two
write-in candidates).  A similar analysis could be done, and should be done,
or the Governor’s race, and for all races in which the unofficial results
were very close.

The methodology was simple.  The percentage of undervotes and overvotes for
each county was derived by fifth grade mathematics.  The total number of
votes counted for the candidates combined was subtracted from the number of
ballots cast.  The remainder is the number of uncounted ballots, or
undervotes plus overvotes.  This number was divided by the number of ballots
cast to determine the percentage of ballots left uncounted in each county.
The complete data set for all 88 counties is appended to this paper.

There are 88 counties in Ohio.  Of these 88 counties, according to unofficial
results posted by J. Kenneth Blackwell, 71 counties had rates of undervotes
and overvotes ranging from 0.88% (in Greene County) to 6.90% (in Holmes
County).  In 62 of these 71 counties, the percentages were tightly clustered
between 2.00% and 4.50%.  The rate in these 71 counties combined was 2.99%.

In 16 of the other 17 counties, including 4 of the 10 most populous counties
in the State of Ohio, the percentages of undervotes and overvotes were
clearly anomalous, ranging from 11.91% (in Montgomery County) to 26.48% (in
Cuyahoga County), with a combined rate of 19.46%, or six and one-half times
the rate in the rest of the state.  Just four counties — Cuyahoga, Lucas,
Montgomery and Stark — accounted for 219,332 undervotes and overvotes, or
62.55% of the statewide total of 350,669.  Cuyahoga County alone accounted
for 148,928 undervotes and overvotes, or 42.47% of the statewide total.  It
is difficult to believe that more than one in four voters in Cuyahoga County
could not decide between Sherrod Brown and Mike DeWine.

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS: UNITED STATES SENATE

              Ballots Cast   Votes Counted     Undervotes/Overvotes

16 counties      1,382,455       1,113,568       268,987  19.46%
71 counties      2,775,090       2,692,133        82,957   2.99%

In Marion County, Blackwell reported 19,853 total votes cast, and 21,128
votes counted for the United States Senate candidates — an overcount of
1,275 votes. These are known as “phantom votes,” because they are
apparitions, with no explainable origin.  There can never be more votes
counted for an office than the number of persons voting in the election.

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS: UNDERVOTES AND OVERVOTES

County       Ballots   Votes     Undervotes/       Voting
               Cast   Counted     Overvotes      Technology

Cuyahoga     562,498  413,570  148,928  26.48%  touch screen
Morrow        15,679   12,242    3,437  21.92%  touch screen
Belmont       29,045   23,192    5,853  20.15%  touch screen
Coshocton     16,138   13,107    3,031  18.78%  touch screen
Licking       70,705   57,704   13,001  18.39%  touch screen
Jackson       12,025    9,974    2,051  17.06%  touch screen
Lucas        164,003  139,003   25,000  15.24%  touch screen
Tuscarawas    36,124   30,750    5,374  14.88%  touch screen
Stark        139,646  119,011   20,635  14.78%  touch screen
Perry         12,775   10,894    1,881  14.72%  touch screen
Carroll       12,664   10,898    1,766  13.95%  touch screen
Highland      14,351   12,358    1,993  13.89%  touch screen
Wood          50,666   44,190    6,476  12.78%  touch screen
Adams          9,592    8,378    1,214  12.66%  touch screen
Hancock       28,692   25,114    3,578  12.47%  touch screen
Montgomery   207,952  183,183   24,769  11.91%  touch screen
Marion        19,853   21,128   -1,275  -6.42%  touch screen

Note that there is no county falling between Holmes County (6.90%) and
Montgomery County (11.91%). The counties listed above are clearly anomalous.
The unofficial results cannot be right.  And, of course, the unofficial
results in Marion County are impossible.

Note also that all 17 counties listed above utilized touch screen voting
machines, known in the trade as Direct Recording Electronic (DRE).  31 of 88
Ohio counties utilized optical scanners, and none of them had this problem.
Data on voting technology utilized in 2006 by each Ohio county is displayed
on a map provided by http://www.yourvotecountsohio.org

A word of caution is in order. In the 2005 general election in Ohio, several
counties reported incorrect figures for total ballots cast.  The false
numbers were derived by counting absentee ballots twice, as the Diebold
tabulators were programmed to do.  However, there is no evidence that this is
the cause of the abnormally high numbers of undervotes and overvotes reported
in 16 counties in the 2006 general election.  The combined totals of absentee
and provisional ballots are reported by Blackwell for each county, and in no
case are these numbers anywhere near what would be required to account for
the discrepancies.

To the contrary, unofficial voter turnout in these 17 counties was 54.35%,
compared to 52.21% in the other 71 counties of Ohio.  That is not much of a
difference. There were 1,402,408 ballots cast in these 17 counties.  If the
rate of undervotes and undervotes had been about 3%, as was the case
elsewhere in the state, there would have been about 42,000.  Instead there
were 267,712 (or 268,987 if one takes into account the 1,275 phantom votes
in Marion County).

This raises the disturbing possibility that some 227,000 votes were lost
by touch screen voting machines in Ohio. Surely this merits a full-scale
investigation.  Whether or not this “affected the outcome,” a phrase
generally intended to mean who won and who lost the election, is beside
the point.  If 227,000 votes were not counted, the outcome was affected.

VOTER TURNOUT, UNITED STATES SENATE
UNOFFICIAL RESULTS: NOVEMBER 7, 2006

County     Registered   Ballots   Percent     Votes      Undervotes/
               Voters     Cast    Turnout    Counted      Overvotes

Adams          16,966     9,592    56.54%      8,378    1,214 12.66%
Allen             68,892    35,138    51.00%     33,758    1,380  3.93%
Ashland        35,499    19,458    54.81%     18,636      822  4.22%
Ashtabula      62,265    34,415    55.27%     33,614      801  2.33%
Athens         42,573    17,525    41.16%     17,078      447  2.55%
Auglaize       32,759    16,877    51.52%     16,427      450  2.67%
Belmont        43,396    29,045    66.93%     23,192    5,853 20.15%
Brown          27,436    14,290    52.08%     13,831      459  3.21%
Butler        236,998   114,908    48.48%    110,908    4,000  3.48%
Carroll        20,169    12,664    62.79%     10,898    1,766 13.95%
Champaign      25,162    14,553    57.84%     14,168      385  2.65%
Clark          90,057    49,972    55.49%     48,934    1,038  2.08%
Clermont      127,759    65,531    51.29%     63,308    2,223  3.39%
Clinton        25,826    12,749    49.37%     12,394      355  2.78%
Columbiana     79,855    37,143    46.51%     36,104    1,039  2.80%
Coshocton      20,768    16,138    77.71%     13,107    3,031 18.78%
Crawford       28,923    17,072    59.03%     16,430      642  3.76%
Cuyahoga    1,054,670   562,498    53.33%    413,570  148,928 26.48%
Darke          34,357    20,435    59.48%     19,726      709  3.47%
Defiance       25,769    13,168    51.10%     12,981      187  1.42%
Delaware      108,733    64,927    59.71%     63,248    1,679  2.59%
Erie           51,017    30,645    60.07%     29,795      850  2.77%
Fairfield      96,566    54,246    56.18%     52,441    1,805  3.33%
Fayette        15,476     8,510    54.99%      8,340      170  2.00%
Franklin      766,490   342,958    44.74%    333,466    9,492  2.77%
Fulton         28,633    16,269    56.82%     15,728      541  3.33%
Gallia         23,320     9,976    42.78%      9,862      114  1.14%
Geauga         63,299    40,006    63.20%     38,765    1,241  3.10%
Greene        104,200    57,168    54.86%     56,663      505  0.88%
Guernsey       25,429    12,936    50.87%     12,365      571  4.42%
Hamilton      566,661   282,190    49.80%    273,129    9,061  3.21%
Hancock        49,855    28,692    57.55%     25,114    3,578 12.47%
Hardin         17,604     9,805    55.70%      9,388      417  4.25%
Harrison       10,936     6,234    57.00%      5,967      267  4.28%
Henry          19,618    11,697    59.62%     11,201      496  4.24%
Highland       25,679    14,351    55.89%     12,358    1,993  3.89%
Hocking        18,035     9,800    54.34%      9,465      335  3.42%
Holmes         18,204     8,564    47.04%      7,973      591  6.90%
Huron          35,645    18,635    52.28%     18,020      615  3.30%
Jackson        21,748    12,025    55.29%      9,974    2,051 17.06%
Jefferson      48,693    26,344    54.10%     25,364      980  3.72%
Knox           36,348    20,784    57.18%     20,180      604  2.91%
Lake          154,048    86,684    56.27%     84,134    2,550  2.94%
Lawrence       41,470    19,209    46.32%     18,731      478  2.49%
Licking       102,300    70,705    69.12%     57,704   13,001 18.39%
Logan          29,730    16,488    55.46%     15,955      533  3.23%
Lorain        190,767    98,664    51.72%     96,324    2,340  2.37%
Lucas         296,541   164,003    55.31%    139,003   25,000 15.24%
Madison        23,597    13,583    57.56%     13,106      477  3.51%
Mahoning      175,923    96,027    54.58%     92,497    3,530  3.68%
Marion         43,814    19,853    45.31%     21,128   -1,275 -6.42%
Medina        121,000    65,600    54.21%     64,384    1,216  1.85%
Meigs          15,690     7,912    50.43%      7,661      251  3.17%
Mercer         30,985    15,510    50.06%     14,966      544  3.51%
Miami          68,309    36,686    53.71%     36,089      597  1.63%
Monroe         10,054     6,266    62.32%      5,925      341  5.44%
Montgomery    375,459   207,952    55.39%    183,183   24,769 11.91%
Morgan          9,605     5,480    57.05%      5,370      110  2.01%
Morrow         23,962    15,679    65.43%     12,242    3,437 21.92%
Muskingum      51,907    29,004    55.88%     27,739    1,265  4.36%
Noble           8,650     5,453    63.04%      5,124      329  6.03%
Ottawa         28,773    17,734    61.63%     17,238      496  2.80%
Paulding       13,619     7,749    56.90%      7,409      340  4.39%
Perry          20,888    12,775    61.16%     10,894    1,881 14.72%
Pickaway       30,917    17,383    56.22%     16,860      523  3.01%
Pike           18,320     9,632    52.58%      9,508      124  1.29%
Portage       103,718    55,283    53.30%     53,557    1,726  3.12%
Preble         27,699    16,007    57.79%     15,552      455  2.84%
Putnam         24,259    14,545    59.96%     14,031      514  3.53%
Richland       90,641    46,124    50.89%     44,900    1,224  2.65%
Ross           42,351    23,008    54.33%     22,262      746  3.24%
Sandusky       40,477    23,129    57.14%     22,265      864  3.74%
Scioto         47,285    26,072    55.14%     25,466      606  2.32%
Seneca         34,982    20,399    58.31%     19,818      581  2.85%
Shelby         29,476    17,523    59.45%     16,926      597  3.46%
Stark         270,515   139,646    51.62%    119,011   20,635 14.78%
Summit        373,289   199,256    53.38%    193,188    6,068  3.05%
Trumbull      141,393    81,011    57.29%     78,552    2,459  3.04%
Tuscarawas     56,295    36,124    64.17%     30,750    5,374 14.88%
Union          30,004    17,076    56.91%     16,554      522  3.06%
Van Wert       20,347    10,642    52.30%     10,299      343  3.22%
Vinton          8,666     4,598    53.06%      4,412      186  4.05%
Warren        127,843    66,684    52.16%     64,859    1,825  2.74%
Washington     39,547    23,134    58.50%     22,369      765  3.31%
Wayne          70,067    39,130    55.85%     37,753    1,377  3.52%
Williams       25,329    13,174    52.01%     12,687      487  3.70%
Wood           93,272    50,666    54.32%     44,190    6,476 12.78%
Wyandot        15,428     8,303    53.82%      8,006      297  3.58%